Saturday, March 21, 2009

Mock Draft (3-21)

1. Detroit Lions: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia. With the guaranteed money tied up to the number one pick, the Lions can't afford to take a risk on a junior QB. The odds of finding success are much slimmer, not to mention that a premiere left tackle can have nearly the same impact. With a change in GMs, the Lions finally decide to shy away from the flashy selection to build the franchise the right way, from the front.

2. St. Louis Rams: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia. For the first time in over a decade, Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace will not be with the Rams. With Alex Barron set to take over on the left side, the Rams decide to go out on a limb with the selection. Though only partially his fault, soon to be 32 year old Marc Bulger has been only a shadow of himself recently. With Holt and Pace gone, it's time the Rams reboot their franchise at the top, with a quarterback who can lead them to great places once again.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. The Chiefs have spent several picks adding key offensive pieces over the last several offseasons. On the defensive side of the ball, GM Scott Pioli won't be hesitant to build up the front 7. Aaron Curry is a special linebacker with no kinks in his armor. He's a great athlete who has shown the ability to get off of blocks. Last year's first round draft selection, Glenn Dorsey will help contribute to an immediate turnaround up front.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor. A surprising pick here could easily be Ohio State's Chris Wells who contributions could be felt immediately. Still, Smith seems to be the safer selection, a theme we should see echoing throughout the draft. He's the elite pass protector in the draft with footwork that doesn't come around too often. Smith won't be the immediate spark to turn around a gloomy 2008 season, but that's where the Seahawks will bank on their key free agent acquisitions.

5. Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, OLB, Texas. It comes as no surprise that the Browns are looking to solidify their defense with their top draft selection. New head coach Eric Mangini, is a defensive minded coach who adopts a team who finished 2nd from the bottom in defensive sacks and in the bottom ten in completion percentage. Even though Orakpo has been likened to Vernon Gholston, Mangini's top draft pick last year, expect quicker contributions with this selection. Rak is a more polished player with a better all-around game as a rookie.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State. Though this may come as a bit of a shocker, Beanie's recent performance at the OSU pro day may have been just enough to put him back inside the top ten. The hometown selection could be just enough to turn around a fluttering Bengals offense looking for some new tires to run on. Wells can alleviate pressure off of the quarterback situation and help the offensive line gain some much needed confidence.

7. Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. The myth of Al Davis and 40 times will be debunked once and for all this April. Even this senile GM isn't crazy enough to opt for the 4.3 40 over the most polished receiver to come out in years. He may not have the tools of a Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald, but he should be the frontrunner for OROY because of his exquisite route running and strong hands.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. If you watched Heyward-Bey close enough at college, you'll realize that he's more than just a 4.2 40 time. He's a receiver who wasn't utilized to the best of his abilities. Bey is far more a football player than your average track star. I firmly believe that the Jags are only a lightning quick wideout away from having one of the best all-around offenses in the league.

9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College. There isn't a more solid pick for the Packers than Raji. He's a senior with all the God-given talent in the world. He carries his weight well and is one of the quickest players in the draft in comparison to his mass. Raji is a bull that can be the central cog of the Packers new 3-4 defense. Ryan Pickett has everything needed to be that nose tackle, expect the stamina. That's where Raji steps in.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. The sexy pick appears to be a quarterback here, but truth be told, there isn't a quarterback that's worthy of a top ten selection. Smith's stock may have dipped a bit, but he was never the "sexy in shorts" player. The only question I needed to see answered this offseason was his arm length. At 6'4 with 35 3/8" arms, Smith not only has the leverage, but also the length advantage on the outside. His character concerns have been blown out of proportion and if ever he needs a swift kick in the rear, San Francisco has a firm-minded Head Coach who isn't afraid to do just that.

11. Buffalo Bills: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State. Weighing in at over 250 pounds at his Pro Day and running a 40 time in the 4.5's, Maybin just may have solidified a spot in the first fifteen selections. Though the flashy 40 time may not have been there at the Combine, the rest of his numbers tested off the charts among defensive ends. His explosive first step and great length are assets that will allow him to be that dangerous pass rusher opposite Aaron Schobel, who was considered one of the game's elite not long ago.

12. Denver Broncos: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU. The Broncos defense is bad and new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has some work to do to make it all work. There isn't a player more likely to do his job week in and week out than Tyson Jackson. Any 3-4 expert will tell you that the defense starts with the front three and while the Broncos missed out on Raji, Jackson should help to solve the linebacker problems directly behind him.

13. Washington Redskins: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State. Brown has the build, strength, and speed of a 4-3 defensive end. With the marquee acquisition of Albert Haynesworth, any defensive linemen at this selection should help Dan Snyder look like a genius. Brown has enormous upside that will start to look more and more like the right selection a year or two down the line.

14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB/FS, Ohio State. The Saints couldn't come away with a bigger steal at this selection. Jenkins' 40 time might be just enough to push him down right into their laps. His talent, production, and instincts have destined for greatness, but the only question that's yet to be answered is whether he has the quickness and long speed to play cornerback. Luckily, the Saints have a pressing need at safety and lesser need at corner, so it won't take them long to place him at the right position.

15. Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC. The Texans are primed for their breakout season and if good health plays into their fortunes, this could be the year they finally make the playoffs. Their young investments are starting to pay off as a result of the underrated coaching staff. While the Texans have a band of underrated linebackers, Cushing is the type of athlete that can step up as a Pro Bowler, something they lack alongside DeMeco Ryans. The Texans are a team that tends to forsake a little bit of production for a lot of measureables and upside. In every sense, this seems to be the logical selection.

16. San Diego Chargers: Ziggy Hood, DE, Missouri. While all signs point to an offensive tackle or Rey Maualuga, Hood might just be the best fit for the Chargers. After losing Olshanksy because of some minor motivational issues, the Charges quickly pursue his replacement. Hood is, bar none, the most underrated and unknown athletes of the draft. His KEI (Kirwan Explosion Index) that I mentioned in an earlier post beats even Jarron Gilbert, the freakish 5-tech. Surprisingly, he's also one of the players whose motor, work ethic, and production match his skill set.

17. New York Jets: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State. Don't expect the Jets to hesitate to take their quarterback if he's still available. The team's free agent spending of a year ago would have completely paid off had it not been for Favre's late season collapse. Right now, they're unsure of whether their next quarterback is on the roster, but they need to make sure they don't suffer a setback because of poor perpetual quarterback play. Freeman has arm and frame to be this year's Joe Flacco. Like Flacco at Delaware, Freeman was also relegated to throwing to midget receivers for his final season, which hampered his production.

18. Chicago Bears: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri. The Bears could go in a number of directions with this selection, including USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. Maclin is in the process of riding a wave closer to the top of the draft. The speed, quickness, and production of Maclin is difficult to mask and far too difficult to pass up in the middle of the first round. Because of the weak QB crop, the Bears decide to give their guys one more shot and spend a pick on a more likely success story down the line.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC. With Jon Gruden out, a new quarterback is in. I still really love developmental prospect Josh Johnson, but it never hurts to have multiple capable quarterbacks on the roster. Sanchez is the perfect West Coast offense with all of the tools to succeed in the NFL. Experience is my striking concern, but if the Bucs think they can allow Sanchez a season on the bench, this is the intelligent decision.

20. Detroit Lions (f/DAL): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC. Lions fans, don't fret because you didn't find a quarterback. With the low success rate of junior quarterbacks, the odds are that 2/3 won't turn out to be the studs they're expected to be. Linebackers in Detroit are going to have a different mantra this year: Stop the run!! Adding another fiery and ferocious downhill thumper alongside the emotional Ernie Sims will bring a new breed of defense to town.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia. Rather than wait for the great Brian Westbrook to deteriorate, the Eagles can afford to spend one of their two first round draft picks to improve the shelf-life of their stud running back. After losing the reliable Correll Buckhalter, the Eagles are left with a bigger need than one might expect. Moreno also adds the downhill mentality, refusing to fall upon first contact.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi. The Vikings were hot in pursuit of possible free agent Jordan Gross, so it comes as no surprise that they're looking in that direction. Oher has consistency issues, but he ranks among the elite in the class in talent. As long as he can keep his weight down, Oher has the potential to be a four position linemen in the league.

23. New England Patriots: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois. Davis slips far too long and the Patriots, year after year, manage to find that type of prospect. With the loss of Asante Samuel, they lost a playmaker on defense. In a year or two, Davis will turn into their top corner and the closer down the stretch.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. Pettigrew reminds me a lot of Alge Crumpler in his prime. They both have the build and strength to play like the 6th linemen, but are good enough receivers to become that extra threat out wide. Pettigrew looks his best as a receiver when split out wide and with how well he uses his body, he'd be a difficult assignment to draw on defense. More importantly, he fits the Falcons run-first philosophy perfectly.

25. Miami Dolphins: Michael Johnson, OLB, Georgia Tech. The biggest myth in the draft is that Michael Johnson takes plays off. Ask any Yellow Jackets fan and they'll tell you that's far from the truth. Johnson plays too hard on too many plays and has been working with a nutritionist this offseason to improve his stamina. Johnson has the freakish athleticism and length to excel at outside linebacker for the Tuna.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida. The Ravens have an offense in place, but they really lack the explosiveness on the outside to stretch the defense. After looking good running the route tree at Florida's Pro Day, Harvin seems like the logical selection if he's miraculously still around. Harvin is a gadget receiver who could be the home run threat at WR, RB, or Wildcat with as few as 10 touches a game.

27. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi. I've had Jerry in this slot for as long as I can't remember. It's one of those picks that just fits. Jerry is the ultimate Tampa 2 DT. He has the quickness and first step to be a great penetrator, but also the stoutness to play the run. He's not the largest DT by any means, but he fits Head Coach Jim Caldwell's pledge to get bigger in the interior.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (f/CAR): William Beatty, OT, Connecticut. If the Eagles miraculously decide to stay in the first round for two shots, an offensive tackle could be the selection here. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles have shown a tendency to add depth and talent in the trenches year after year. Beatty is an intriguing prospect because he has the athleticism and talent to look like an All-Pro one play and bull-rushed into the backfield the next. With a year in the weight room, he should be the long-term solution at left tackle.

29. New York Giants: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers. Through free agency, the Giants have done an outstanding job adding depth throughout the roster. They enter the draft with only one gaping hole from becoming the preseason Super Bowl favorites: the void (that may be) left by Plaxico Burress. Britt is the most complete receiver in this draft. He comes from a pro-style offense, has the large frame, route running, and downfield blocking. The only reason he falls this far is because no one knows whether or not he'll be able to separate from corners in the NFL. At this point, the Giants could find the biggest steal in the draft, or just another one of those busting tall receivers.

30. Tennessee Titans: Jarron Gilbert, DL, San Jose State. The Titans certainly have some depth along the defensive line even after losing Haynesworth, but there's something about Gilbert that reminds me of Big Al. Both are unique physical specimens that play an aggressive game. It may take a year or two, but the Titans should be able to forget the loss of Haynesworth due to their excellent depth.

31. Arizona Cardinals: Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati. Barwin is a physical specimen through and through. No matter what the Cardinals choose to do on defense, Barwin should have a position to play. He's a hard-working young man who will give it everything play after play. After showing the courage to select unpolished CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last April, we know the Cards won't be afraid to do so again. This will be as much a selection in faith of the coaching staff as it will be in this young talent. Two other options here are LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona. Let's not try and complicate things more than we need to. After watching Big Ben take a constant pounding throughout last season, even some of the diehard Ravens fans must have found it in them to feel bad for him. The Steelers desperately need to find help up front. Britton isn't an elite athlete, but he's as solid and ready a RT prospect as you'll find at the bottom of the first round.

11 comments:

  1. as a Lions fan I would cry with delight if they went LT with the first pick, and somehow managed to get Rey Maualuga with the 20th.

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  2. My personal preference, as a Browns fan, is to take BJ Raji with the #5 pick and move either him or Shaun Rogers to DE. Orakpo is good, but there is so much DE/OLB depth in this draft that 1st round prospects will fall to the 2nd.

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  3. One thing I've never really understood is why a team drafts a "Left Tackle of the Future" in the Top 8. Usually those players are safest because they are the most NFL ready. I can't imagine Seattle drafting Jason Smith while they've still got Walter Jones.

    As for the Jets pick, you've definitely done your research. The Jets organization has been linked closely to Freeman, but even more closely to Jeremy Maclin (unfortunately). I'm not a fan of either, but I could see the Jets potentially grabbing Maclin over Freeman. Not that either scenario particularly tickles my fancy.

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  4. You make a legitimate point there Spiel. I guess Seattle knows that this year was just a one year thing and that if they rebound well next year, they won't be in the position to get an elite talent like Smith. Smith has some unique and elite abilities, but is still a year out from being able to adequately compete with Walter on the left side. With this selection, they can hope that Smith is ready to contribute elsewhere on the OL (maybe RT?) before eventually taking over for Jones in a year. That way, you get a seamless transition from a HOF tackle to hopefully another All-Pro OT.

    Also, as you can tell from my Big Board, I'm not nearly as high as others on Jason Smith. I really do like him, but when you're picking so high, I don't think it should be quite the "project" that you're getting in Smith. He's still very raw and that scares me in the top 5. Still, from what I hear, Smith is easily a top 5 prospect and that's what I go by in Mocks.

    I've also seen Maclin's stock soar over the last couple weeks. These things happen annually where players climb for no apparent reason and Maclin is the beneficiary of it this year. I don't understand it. Maclin is a solid 1st round player in my opinion, but I'd feel the same way as you if I were a Jets fan.

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  5. Honestly this is THE ideal first round for the Lions (since I doubt they can trade out of the #1). I like that you still have the gall to pick Monroe even though the trend is towards Smith, I definitely agree.

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  6. i like it a lot from a lions standpoint
    if they take a offensive lineman at #1 and can get maulauga at #20 that would be great because then they could get a good dt at #33 and that would really help stop the run

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  7. I'm glad you guys like it. I have Robert Ayers slipping to the 2nd round, who I have going to the Lions actually. I know the Lions have some good defensive ends, but Ayers would be too much talent to pass up at the top of the 2nd round. He's a great run stopping defensive end.

    Just visit my "home page" and it's the most recent post:

    http://roshansnfldraftblog.blogspot.com/

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  8. usc linebacker over mizz DT.... next jr seau teamed wth merriman

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  9. Tampa bay will take the kid from mississippi DT peria jerry . and not a QB or a LB .We can get a better QB in next years draft. Orwe can get the QB rtt bomar in the forth round . he is a better QB than sanchez or freeman any way.

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  10. or tampa can get QB rett bomar in the fourth round .

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