Lions: Cutler or Stafford?

After an 0-16 season, the Lions sit atop the draft order with the number one overall pick...and they need to make it count. The best way to do that? Find your franchise quarterback and use pick #20 and #33 elsewhere. With each new development in the Jay Cutler saga, there rift between Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Jay Cutler seems to widen. Cutler has demanded a trade and if the Broncos cave in to his demands, a likely trading partner and destination for young, strong-armed quarterback could be Detroit. With the first pick in the draft, should the Lions be eager to give it up if it means landing Jay Cutler? Here's a breakdown of Georgia's gunslinger.


Height: 6'2 1/4 Weight: 225 Hand: 10" 10 Yard: 1.65 Shuttle: 4.47
2006 Stats: 135/256, 1749 yards, 52.7%, 6.83 YPA, 7 TD, 13 INT
2007 Stats: 194/348, 2523 yards, 55.7%, 7.35 YPA, 19 TD, 10 INT
2008 Stats: 235/383, 3459 yards, 61.4%, 9.03 YPA, 25 TD, 10 INT

Pros: There's no denying the cannon right arm of Matthew Stafford, which will immediately join a select few of elite arms that can make every imaginable throw on a weekly basis. What separates him from Josh Freeman in the rarity of his arm, is that Stafford has the confidence and willingness to fit the ball into tight windows on a regular basis. He's a true gunslinger, for better or worse. This will help him at the next level with tightening windows and when receivers are never college wide open. Time and time again, he showed the willingness to step up in the face of the blitz to complete the pass. With his muscle and thickness, durability has never been a concern. Combining his lively arm with a quick release and sound mechanics, could spell greatness at the NFL. He has a solid build and has deceptive athleticism for a pocket quarterback. Contrary to popular belief, Stafford is a winner with top-shelf intangibles. Going 27-7 as a starter (11-5 vs. ranked teams) and sweeping his team's 3 bowl games. Stafford's an intense competitor, a hard worker between games, with all of the characteristics of a Super Bowl quarterback. Stafford is the most NFL-ready of this year's class because of his film study and pre-snap reads of the defense. Equally as impressive was the higher number of passes he attempted wide receivers, which may have been partially responsible for a low competition percentage. While it would probably be asking too much of him to replicate the rookie season of Matt Ryan, a Joe Flacco-like season is within grasp. On the right team, Stafford could be an excellent quarterback from day one.

Cons: Consistent accuracy has never been the forte of Stafford. He has the ability to make every throw, but it peculiarly, he tends to miss a lot of simple throws. Like Favre in his very early NFL days, Stafford bullets every pass. He needs to learn to take a little off the ball on short passes, making it easier for receivers to run after the catch. Stafford also has below average ball placement. Receivers tend to have to adjust to the ball, which was partially responsible for a inexcusable number of drops from the Bulldogs receiving squad. Typically, these inadequacies in college don't tend to improve in the pros, which could spell disaster. As mentioned, he's a classic gunslinger, a double-edged sword. He tends to force throws even when they're not there and makes few too many careless decisions with the football.

Overview: Stafford grades out as an elite quarterback prospect this year, but will still be too big a risk to take early in the top 10. In a perfect world, you could burn the pick and not invest too much money in the early years. However, with Matt Ryan inking a 6 year, $72 million deal last year with $34.75 million guaranteed, that will surely be too much to invest in Stafford. The bust rate of junior quarterbacks is very high and those odds increase even more with a career completion rate below 60%. A very high risk, very high reward prospect, especially the higher the he is selected.

Back to the Lions dilemma between Stafford and Cutler, if it becomes a possible option. Jay Cutler, the same type of quarterback, has compiled 8000 yards and 45 TD's over the past two seasons. He has 3 years left on his contract with about $19.3 million owed over the span. That includes a $12 million dollar roster bonus to be owed in his final season in which his team has the option to re-sign him to a long term deal or release him with few cap ramifications. If I were the Lions GM, I'd be doing more than just paying my due diligence to put Jay Cutler into the Motor City. After being proven the laughing stock of the NFL for many years, the Lions don't have room to miss on this number one overall selection. The best way to do that is to not make the selection and trade it away from a proven franchise quarterback with no ceiling.