Thursday, March 19, 2009

Combine: Finding the Right Numbers

Each year, the Combine goes and passes as fans follow on NFL Network. They focus on the 40 yard dash and while that remains the most enjoyable event to watch, it's hardly the most crucial. Of all things at the Combine, I'd even go out on a limb and say that is actually the least important number to follow. Here's what I think are the most important numbers at the Combine:

1. Arm Length: Of all numbers, there's a reason I listed arm length with few numbers on the big board. It's a number you have to do a little number to find (NFL.com and NFLDraftScout do not carry these numbers), but they're worth the find. For several positions, they're virtually useless (QB, RB, etc.), but these numbers can carry a crucial weight. Along the offensive line, arm length can go a long way in determining position for "in between" prospects. A long reach can go a long way in predicting success among offensive tackles.
2. 10 Yard Split: Only for WRs and CBs should the 40 yard dash time even be analyzed. You hear all the time that they should be scrapped, but what should you use a replacement? The first 10 yards, known as the 10 yard split, is a far more important number. This shows how quickly a player can get off the line of scrimmage. It doesn't factor in top speed, but shows burst and acceleration, universally important measures.
3. Short Shuttle: The short shuttle asks players to redirect. While the 10 Yard and 40 Yard numbers measure straight-line speed, the short shuttle does a good job of testing how players will react on the field with a change in direction. Linebackers are consistently forced to read plays and change direction throughout just a single play.
4. KEI: Better known as the Kirwan Explosion Index. This is a formula developed by Pat Kirwan to filter out the weight room warriors and the guys with great explosion who can't deliver a blow once they get there. This is a raw number that you find by Bench Press Reps + Vertical Jump + Broad Jump. A score above 70 is a good number.
5. Speed & Quickness: This is another raw number developed by Pat Kirwan that measures change-of-direction. This number is the 40 Yard Dash - Short Shuttle. The better number is found by the higher positive discrepancy.
6. Cone Drill: The cone drill is a good measure of a player's fluidity. It also factors in some of the attributes measured by the Short Shuttle and S&Q.

I'll post these full 2009 Combine numbers over the next few days and provide a little more detailed analysis by the position.

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