Monday, March 16, 2009

Big Board -- Top 32 Prospects

With no weight attached to positions or team needs, here are my top 32 prospects in order. Enjoy!

Name (Position, College, Height, Weight, Arm Length, 40 Yard Dash)

1. Aaron Curry (OLB, Wake Forest, 6'2, 254, 32 5/8, 4.52) - Bluntly speaking, Curry is the best football player and the safest pick in the draft. There are virtually no question marks associated with him and he has the versatility to play a position(s) in any scheme. Safer and more polished than even AJ Hawk coming out of Ohio State.
2. B.J. Raji (DT, Boston College, 6'2, 337, 32, 5.12) - There are questions with B.J. Raji (i.e. being academically ineligible for a season, arm length, weight fluctuations). That said, I feel he's one of the soundest prospects this year. He carries his weight well and is quite nimble for his size. He could step in and be one of the premiere nose tackles in the game in either the 4-3 or the 3-4 defense.
3. Brian Orakpo (DE/OLB, Texas, 6'3, 263, 33 1/2, 4.63) - Rak is a freakish athlete with the strength and length to play the 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 rush outside linebacker. His ideal position would be with a hand on the ground because of some stiffness concerns, but that doesn't mean he can't play the latter. Orakpo has shown more polish than Vernon Gholston last year, but also comes with some durability concerns.
4. Eugene Monroe (OT, Virginia, 6'5, 309, 33 7/8, 5.18) - Monroe heads a deep and talented offensive tackle class. Monroe has footwork and hand use that's rarely found in draft prospects. He doesn't display the explosiveness in the run game, but his frame and skill set translate well to the money position on the offensive line.
5. Michael Crabtree** (WR, Texas Tech, 6'1, 215, 34 1/4, 4.5est.) - Crabtree is more polished than Larry Fitzgerald coming out of college. That came straight from the mouth of the NFL's best wideout. At this point, Crabtree has to be the favorite to win OROY in the upcoming season. His hands are as good as any collegiate receiver and his route running is very efficient. The only knocks on him are his incomplete route tree at TT and his lack of elite physical tools.
6. Matthew Stafford* (QB, Georgia, 6'2, 225, 33 1/4, 4.81) - Stafford is not the safest franchise quarterback to come out and compares favorably to Jay Cutler as a prospect. His accuracy is far from perfect, but there are so few legit question marks with Stafford. He's easier to evaluate than any prospect. Coming from a pro style offense, throwing an abnormally high percentage of passes to wide receivers, and playing three years in a powerhouse SEC program, it's all on tape. It's hard not to fall in love with the potential of Stafford.
7. Andre Smith* (OT, Alabama, 6'4, 332, 35 3/8, 5.30) - Sure, the 40 yard dash may have kept you up at night, but that's Smith. Despite all the knocks on work ethic and intelligence, Andre Smith has been brutally honest throughout the entire process. To expect anything different from Andre than a big rack and lousy workout numbers, was setting the bar too high. Ten times out of ten, I'll take the player who dazzles me on the field over the one who simply dazzles me in shorts.
8. Jason Smith (OT, Baylor, 6'5, 309, 33 3/4, 5.09) - Smith is a legitimate left tackle prospect. His pass blocking is excellent and his athleticism...spectacular. Smith is a less polished version of Chris Williams last year. With the NFL transforming into a pass-happy league, there are numerous teams searching for the left tackle to keep their quarterback upright. Jason will do that for you for the next ten years.
9. Everette Brown* (OLB, Florida State, 6'2, 256, 33, 4.66) - Brown's workout numbers were generally disappointing, but his tape doesn't lie. His hand use is the best in the class and Brown really has the fluidity and athleticism to play the 3-4 glamour position.
10. Malcolm Jenkins (CB/FS, Ohio State, 6'0, 204, 32 1/2, 4.51) - Here's another kid that looks much better on the field than in shorts. He didn't run a blazing 40, as expected, but more disappointing was the little stiffness in his hips that showed at both the Combine and Pro Day. This makes me believe he may be a slightly better fit at free safety, but regardless of where he plays, he'll get the job done.
11. Vontae Davis* (CB, Illinois, 5'11, 203, 30, 4.40) - Davis is an extremely gifted defensive back. Though exposed a few times this season, his struggles have been vastly blown out of proportion. Davis can be molded into the prototype cornerback.
12. Michael Johnson (DE/OLB, Georgia Tech, 6'7, 266, 34 3/8, 4.68) - Johnson had an excellent Combine as expect, yet still has felt no boost in his stock. I'm firmly a Johnson supporter. He will need a year before he's NFL ready, but he should be able to provide some good rotational duty as a rookie. He has the fluidity, first step, and length to play the 3-4 rush linebacker. If you ask any GT fan, they'll tell you his work ethic, motor, and desire is as good as any. Wrap that together with his physical skill set and you have the potential for an All-Pro end.
13. Knowshon Moreno** (RB, Georgia, 5'11, 217, 30 3/4, 4.58) - One of the most complete backs to come out over the last few years. He can block, catch, and most importantly run. Moreno has elite lateral movement and always falls forward upon contact.
14. Aaron Maybin* (OLB, Penn State, 6'4, 249, 35 1/4, 4.78) - Though he's very lean right now, Maybin has the length and the first step to play in the league for a long time. His arms are longer than Michael Johnson's and his 10 yard split is better than nearly every other tweener. Because of his size, Maybin is a high risk, high reward prospect.
15. Chris Wells* (RB, Ohio State, 6'1, 235, 33 5/8, 4.53) - A big back with a nasty stiff arm. Wells may not have the lateral ability of Moreno, but when he gets headed North-South, there's virtually no stopping him.
16. Kenny Britt* (WR, Rutgers, 6'3, 218, 34, 4.50) - The only question mark with Britt is whether he'll be quick enough to separate in the pros. It is a huge question mark, but if he can do that, there's nothing stopping him. He has the imposing physical size, the long speed, and the swagger. He ran a complete college route tree through constant double coverage and usually came away victorious.
17. Michael Oher (OT, Mississippi, 6'5, 309, 33 1/2, 5.34) - An athletic talent that displayed some consistency problems throughout his senior year. Right now, he's more of a product of hype rather than on-field domination, but still has the upside to play left tackle. At the worst, he should be able to kick inside.
18. Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Oklahoma State, 6'5, 263, 34 7/8, 4.80) - Though his Combine was slightly worse than expected, Pettigrew's resume in college speaks for itself. Scouts are incredibly high on his overall ability, but he may not have quite the fluidity and athleticism of a Jason Witten down the seam. Still, he's one of the best complete blocking tight ends to come out in years.
19. Darrius Heyward-Bey* (WR, Maryland, 6'2, 210, 33 5/8, 4.25) - Though underutilized at Maryland, Heyward-Bey has the talent and feel of an NFL wide receiver. His electrifying speed and solid build should give him some immediate opportunities as a rookie, but his true value is in the long run.
20. Peria Jerry (DT, Mississippi, 6'2, 299, 32 1/2, 5.0est.) - Jerry is this year's top UT for the 4-3 defense. He lacks the length to be the prototype 5-technique (3-4 DE), but he plays with great leverage. Jerry is stouter that most guys with his quickness, but unfortunately, his body looks maxed out at 299 pounds.
21. Jeremy Maclin* (WR, Missouri, 6'0, 198, 32 1/4, 4.46) - Maclin's stock is on the rise and has even been rumored to be the first wideout selected. My only concern with Maclin is his experience with the route tree. Missouri's offense limited his ability to display a wide array of route running.
22. Josh Freeman* (QB, Kansas State, 6'6, 248, 32 3/4, 4.94) - Possessing the stature and arm of a prototypical quarterback, Freeman has nearly everything that Stafford does. The only thing he's missing is the confidence and natural feel for the game. If that comes to him, look for Josh to be the steal of the 2009 draft.
23. Evander "Ziggy" Hood (DT, Missouri, 6'3, 300, 33 3/4, 4.88) - With workout numbers that went quietly unnoticed, Ziggy Hood is also shooting up draft boards. He has the frame and length for the position, but he may be too much of a penetrator (ala Corey Williams) to be elite at the position. Even though his value may be higher to 3-4 teams, he can also be an excellent, disruptive tackle in the 4-3 scheme and a perfect fit for the Tampa 2.
24. Jarron Gilbert (DT/DE, San Jose State, 6'6, 288, 36 3/4 4.81) - As a defensive tackle, Gilbert recorded 22 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. In Indy, his numbers across the board were equally impressive. He's still flirting around between the 1st and 2nd round, but he looks like he has the potential to be an elite 5-technique. My primary concern with Gilbert is that he may be a fit just in the 3-4. He plays too high to gain the leverage battle inside and doesn't have the brute strength to overcome that. However, if you kick him outside, the potential is endless.
25. William Beatty (OT, Connecticut, 6'6, 307, 34 3/4, 5.06) - Though still incredibly raw, there's far too much upside in Beatty to pass up 32 times. His footwork and athleticism is excellent, but still needs to continue to excel in the weight room before he can truly become a dominant left tackle.
26. Darius Butler (CB, Connecticut, 5'10, 183, 32 7/8, 4.41) - Forget Malcolm Jenkins and Vontae Davis. Darius Butler is the smoothest, most natural cornerback in the class. Though he still has much to learn with technique and efficiency, Butler has elite athleticism, leaping ability, instincts, and quickness to excel in the NFL. He'll need to focus in the weight room and learn to reroute receivers at the line of scrimmage and because of that, he may still be a year away from being NFL-ready.
27. Patrick Chung (S, Oregon, 5'11, 212, 32 1/2, 4.49) - I'm not sure if any safety is worth a first round pick this year, but the most qualified is Patrick Chung. Chung won't wow you in any department, but is an extremely solid football player in every aspect of the game. He's a superb in-the-box guy who has enough range to start at strong safety. Don't expect him to man up very often, but he has shown the ability to play some solid off-man coverage.
28. Alphonso Smith (CB, Wake Forest, 5'9, 193, 31 1/2, 4.47) - Smith has the best instincts and ball skills in this draft, bar none. Still, his size limitations and lack of elite athleticism will force him to play perfect football, whereas players such as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have the ability to rely a little on physical talent. We've also seen a number of gamblers make an early exit from the NFL and Smith could just as easily be one of them.
29. Percy Harvin (WR/RB, Florida, 5'11, 192, 31 5/8, 4.39) - An electrifying athlete who is wide receiver equivalent of Reggie Bush. He won't be a great runner, but should be one of the league's finest home run threats. Harvin already looks more willing to run in traffic than Bush does. Get him 10 touches a game and you'll have a true weapon on your hand. There is a higher bust rate with Harvin, who comes with the enigma of Florida receivers.
30. Tyson Jackson (DE/DT, LSU, 6'4, 296, 34 3/4, 4.94) - This draft is absolutely loaded with 5-technique candidates and with more teams making the switch, we should see more of them utilized in their correct positions. Jackson is another one of these players. He has the length and stoutness to play outside. He's as safe a pick at the position as you'll find.
31. Clay Matthews (OLB, USC, 6'3, 240, 32 1/4, 4.62) - If you ask scouts, which of the USC linebackers has impressed the most this offseason, you'll hear Matthews atop most lists. Rather than his 4.64 40, perhaps I should have posted his 1.49 10 yard split. To put that into reference here are some other times: Chris Wells (1.53), Jeremy Maclin (1.56), Aaron Curry (1.53), Alphonso Smith (1.50). Matthews will come with the risk of being just another Trojan aided by the immense talent playing alongside him. Still, I like him and his bloodlines enough to put him just inside the first round.
32. Brian Cushing (OLB, USC, 6'3, 243, 32 1/2, 4.68) - Cushing is another player with the big "P" word on his side (potential). His durability is a serious concern and his production never really equaled his workout numbers. This past season, he impressed me enough to place him on the cusp of the first round. For now, he makes the cut.

Just Missed (alphabetical order):
Connor Barwin (DE/OLB, Cincinnati, 6'4, 256, 33 3/4, 4.59)
James Laurinaitis (LB, Ohio State, 6'2, 244, 31 5/8, 4.78)
Alex Mack (C, California, 6'4, 311, 33, 5.1est.)
Rey Maualuga (ILB, USC, 6'2, 249, 31 3/4, 4.81)
D.J. Moore* (CB, Vanderbilt, 5'9, 192, 30 1/2, 4.56)
Mark Sanchez* (QB, USC, 6'2, 227, 33 1/2, 4.94)
Sean Smith* (CB/S, Utah, 6'4, 214, 34 5/8, 4.50)

3 comments:

  1. I'm liking the blog, and agree with a lot of what you say, but I think you've also got to take a look at the REALITY of the situation. Sure it would be beneficial to the Lions to bring in Cutler, but a deal would be almost impossible to make. The Broncos want a trade for a replacement QB, not draft picks. And they certainly don't want the #1 overall pick and all the money that it demands. They just signed Chris Simms, who is a serviceable QB in an emergency, but I don't think Cutler is going to be traded at this point in time.

    But if he does, it will have to be very soon, and will likely be a 3-team trade. Now how often do those two things go together?

    Also, you've got none of Penn State's WRs in your top 39 there? I disagree. Derrick Williams is a better prospect than half the DBs you have. Also, James Laurinaitis is at least better than Brian Cushing, if not Clay Matthews as well.

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  2. Yeah, that's a good point. From the Broncos point of view, it would be a terrible business decision to let go of Cutler without getting anything of proven value in return, particularly a quarterback. This is a unique situation in the NFL, as franchise quarterbacks on the rise rarely hit the trade market.

    In my opinion, the best thing for the organization to do is have Josh McDaniels admit a mistake (whether he actually believes it or not) and keep Cutler. If Cutler absolutely refuses to play for the Broncos, it's going to have to come in a multi-team trade and I think the Lions will be a player. There are QBs such as Leinart and Quinn who could find themselves moving.

    For the Broncos, even the #1 overall pick would be too little to get in return, especially in a year as top-weak as this one. I would even go so far as to say that a pick in the 6-10 range is more valuable than one in the 1-5 range because of guaranteed money. If Cutler is traded, the Broncos should be getting a potential franchise quarterback + a high draft pick in return, otherwise they'll have come away with the short stick.

    The Penn State receivers are in the 2nd-3rd round range. Deon Butler is too tiny to go in the first or early second round. He has the speed, quickness, and route running to be a solid Pro, but there are too many tiny, fast receivers that bust in the NFL. As for Derrick Williams, he was very disappointing at the Combine. I typically don't put too much stock into the numbers, but it was much worse than I expected. I believe he did have the flu, so I'll reserve judgment until his Pro Day numbers come in. His production doesn't warrant a first round pick to begin with, but he also sits in the late 2nd-3rd round range.

    I feel all of the linebackers are pretty bad this year. None of them are going to be Patrick Willis. Laurinaitis is my top ILB because of instincts and his change-of-direction skills. Still, he doesn't attack the line of scrimmage very well. As far as grading linebackers, I rank shedding blocks and attacking very high on my list. Cushing and Matthews look a tad better with that and both seem to be better all-around athletes as well. Again, I'd have James in my 25-35 range and as April approaches, I could see him gaining a couple spots.

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  3. It's going to have to be a mult-team deal at this point. The only team with something of a quarterback to offer would be Buffalo, and Edwards/Losman with the 11th overall pick still would not be enough for Cutler.

    But I don't think Detroit gets involved either. The stigma of the first overall pick is not good these days. If you have that pick you're paying top dollar. And recently, as we saw last year, some teams will simply go the safe route.

    If there's going to be a three-team trade I also don't see the Broncos trying to obtain Leinart or Quinn. Neither really fits McDaniels system. The problem is that right now there's really not a quarterback readily available who can do everything that Cassel was able to do last year. Well, besides Cutler.

    The Broncos just need to man up and admit they goofed.

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